Posted on Monday 17 July 2006
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Our inability to predict environments subjected to [rare, significant events] coupled with a general lack of the awareness of this state of affairs, means that certain professionals, while believing they are experts, are in fact not. Based on their empirical record, they do not know more about their subject matter than the general population, but they are much better at narrating—or, worse, at smoking you with complicated mathematical models. They are also more likely to wear a tie.
—Time Capsule: A Random Post
Part 1: Why You Should Have Started Saving for Retirement Yesterday
18 May 2006
Say I want to drive to Chicago, which is a couple of hours away, and I need to be there by noon. There are a couple of considerations I must take into account if I want to reach this deadline. First, what time will I leave Champaign and, second, how fast can I [...]Categories
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